“No Employment Market Recovery For Lawyers Until 2010″
September 23, 2009 by Damian
Have a look at this link to a very interesting article on the issue of how long it might take for the legal recuitment market to return to ‘normal’ again – http://au.legalbusinessonline.com/news/analysis/no-employment-market-recovery-for-lawyers-until-2010/36880
To be honest, the tenor of the article makes a lot of sense to me and if it is correct, then we are looking at around March/April next year before things can confidently be seen to be ‘normal’.
Much as I would like to disagree with this assessment, I think that it is probably reasonably close to the mark. Although there is an increasing amount of optimism around and a few more vacancies coming on, the market is nowhere near showing any real fluidity or new activity. To add into the mix, remember that we have the traditional Christmas/January slowdown to come as well which always puts the brakes on things.
So although the worst may be behind us, it could be another 6 months or so until we are completely out of the woods.
Rose Tinted Glasses – Don’t Make That Mistake
September 22, 2009 by Damian
It has been pretty obvious to everyone that getting a job in the last 9-12 months has been very difficult. The number of vacancies has shrunk dramatically while at the same time, the numbers and quality of applicants has increased in a similar vein. This has left some good people either out of a job or sitting very unhappily in their current one, desperately wanting to be somewhere else.
Recently, there has been a marked change in the mood around the job market and the country in general. The general consensus is that the worst is behind us and that the recovery, although it may be slow, is on its way.
I agree with this sentiment and god knows I hope that it is correct. However, I have already started to pick up a sense from people that they think that, once business confidence has been restored and the markets have stabilised, changing jobs will be as simple as sending in a CV, having a chat with a hiring manager and signing on the dotted line.
I think there is a serious case of people looking through ‘rose tinted glasses’ at the pre-credit crunch job market. I read an article in a reputable online legal magazine by a partner in a firm in Dubai who said they used to hire people purely and simply because they had the letters ‘LLB’ beside their name. Obviously he was over-simplifying things but the message that he was sending out was, in my opinion, a dangerous one.
It was not (and never will be) very easy to change jobs. Back in the ‘good old days’, I know that there were some people who secured jobs in firms who, in reality, were not strong enough for them and were completely out of their depth. However, those people were the exception, not the rule but their experience has lent creedance to the belief that changing jobs is as simple as changing one’s hairstyle.
I, like everyone else, am looking forward to a job market where people have options. A ‘normal market’ should be one where a person does not have to sit in a job that they really dislike or is unable to move locations due to a lack of suitable opportunities.
However, I think that everyone needs to get some perspective on how the market will actually look in the coming months and years. It will not be a matter of just applying for the job you want and getting it. You will still need a strong CV that showcases your skills and experience. You will still need to demonstrate that you can add significant value and that you have the potential to go far in the organisation. In other words, you will still have to work hard to get a job.
Those who are looking back through ‘rose tinted glasses’ and think that getting a job will be easy, even when the market does improve, are going to be in for a nasty surprise.
Overseas Markets Update
September 10, 2009 by Damian
The most overused phrase at the moment is ’green shoots’. I hate that phrase. (It’s like marketers talking about going for ‘low hanging fruit’ – I really hate that one.) What is wrong with asking: ’do you see any signs of recovery?’ or ‘are things getting any better?’ Why do people insist on talking about ‘green shoots’? Does no-one realise that ‘green shoots’ can get trampled on very easily? If anyone catches me using it, please feel free to slap me. Hard.
In any case, to answer the question: ‘ are things getting any better?’ I thought that it would be a good idea to give the views of colleagues of mine working in London, Australia and Asia. I will give my twopence worth on the NZ market in a separate post.
I work very closely with an agency in London and was speaking to them last week about the state of the market over there at the moment (not once was ‘green shoots’ mentioned). Their view was that even though it is still ‘incredibly tough’, the worst is almost certainly behind them. They are basing that view on the fact that they are now starting to receive instructions from firms to look for people other than litigation/insolvency/restructuring lawyers. Some firms are even going so far as to hire for their corporate or finance teams. That is the good news. The not so good news, from a NZ lawyer’s point of view, is that these firms are only looking for locally qualified (preferably Oxbridge educated), Magic Circle lawyers who have not been made redundant – that is quite a tight brief.
As such, if we are to look to the future, the first ‘cabs off the rank’ (a cliche I don’t hate as much as ‘green shoots’ or ‘low hanging fruit’) are going to be exactly the type of lawyers mentioned in the previous paragraph – the absolute superstar candidates. When we are at the point when this candidate pool has been exhausted, I think that the firms will then turn to the well quailfied, well educuated, solid City lawyers – ‘the safe pairs of hands’ (the cliches are piling up now). Only after this pool has been emptied will, I believe, the firms start to look at really high quality overseas lawyers but it really will only be those at the ‘top of their game’ over here (that’s another one to add to the list). Then it will go to good quality UK lawyers and then to good quality overseas lawyers and so on and so on.
In other words, there is going to have to be quite an uplift in vacancies in the London market before overseas lawyers will start to get a look in because there are plenty of locally qualifieds to get through first. When this will happen is anyone’s guess but if you asked me to look into my ‘crystal ball’ (another one), I don’t think that there will be many overseas lawyers securing positions in London until mid next year. I hope that I am wrong about that but it will take an incredible turnaround in fortunes for it to happen any time before then.
It is a similar story in Australia. The market there was hammered in the last year but it seems to have ‘flat-lined’ (I promise that will be the last one) and to be on the improve. Again, it will take some time for NZ lawyers to secure positions over there in numbers as there are a lot of good quality Australian qualified lawyers to be slotted in first before employers will start looking at Kiwis. However, the economy over there has rebounded very well so hopefully Australia may be a viable option, if not this year, maybe early next.
Which leaves us with Asia which may well be at the forefront of recruitment activity in the very near future. My colleagues over there told me that they are ‘very busy’ at the moment, admittedly with a lot of insolvency/restructuring work but again they are coming across some corporate/finance roles as well.
This view is backed up by this article from the Asian Legal Business magazine – http://legaljobscentre.com/career-tips/37016/details.aspx although be warned, it does mention ‘green shoots’.
Again with the good news, comes the not so good. The not so good news is that getting a job in Asia has never been easy and only those candidates who have worked in a top tier firm, have excellent academics and at least three years could hope to get a job in a good market. In a tighter market, this quality threshold has been raised even higher to include language skills as being a more important consideration and candidates’ motivations for wanting to move to Asia will be more closely monitored than ever before.
So, all in all, things are still very tough overseas and there is still a lot of correction needed in the market but if you can stick it out for another 6-12 months, your chances of securing something in London, Australia or Asia will be much better than they are now.
Fingers crossed that those ‘green shoots’ continue to grow.
SLAP.